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Update 4/17 5pm: The Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory –April 17-19, 2020

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

We begin a wonderful Spring warm up with a predicted high in the mid 40'sF Friday becoming 50'sF for the weekend. With 12-14 inches of snow to melt, we may see highs stay cooler than the models call for until it has largely melted off. Ripples in the upper air passing over the next week will create small chances of rain showers now and then. Overall, it will be warm and dry.

Update 4/17 5pm:

Other than a chance of showers (rain) Saturday afternoon to early evening (roughly 2-10pm) things are warming up nicely and will remain dry. Looking at Figure 1 update, you can see that Boulder and Larimer counties were the big winners in our snowfall this week. The dark yellow and orange dots are around a foot of snow. Very impressive. Figure 2 update is zoomed in on Longmont. Our town saw 8 to 14 inches of snow. At least the roads and sidewalks cleared very quickly (hurray April sun angle!).

Figure 1 update: 48 hour snowfall totals for north central Colorado from the NWS.
Figure 2 update: 48 hour snowfall totals for central Longmont from the NWS.

End 4/17 5pm update.

The Forecast Discussion:

The main storm from Wednesday/Thursday has pulled off to the east (Figure 1). There are a couple of lows in the atmosphere off the West Coast that will pass. These will be kicking off showers now and then, like the first weak system coming in Saturday afternoon (Figure 2). Our best chance of showers first occur Saturday afternoon and Sunday evening (Figure 3).

Check this space for a snowfall total update Friday morning after the NWS and CoCoRaHS observations come in by 7am.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Over the next 5 days, we may see a nocturnal dusting of snow (that might be just before Friday morning) in Longmont (Figure 4). The mountains may still pick up 4-10 inches in the higher elevations. Rainfall will remain light over the next 5 days with only 0.05 to 0.25 inch accumulating over the next 5 days (Figure 5). Enjoy the return to quiet weather as our nearly 1.5 inch of liquid soaks into the ground and flows into rivers and reservoirs.

Figure 1: the water vapor satellite image (browns/reds are dry air, whites and light grey is moist air, purple/blue is ice and high cloud tops). From the the NWS from Thursday PM. Blue lines are ridges, red lines are troughs (like the 500mb maps).
Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Saturday APM from NCEP.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: 10:1 (snow to liquid) snowfall totals through the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Thursday PM.
Figure 5: precipitation l totals through the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Thursday PM.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

69°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.96 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
43 °F
Humidity
38%
Wind
SSW 3 mph
Gust
5.9 mph
Wind Chill
69 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
9 PM
65°F
Mostly cloudy w/ showers
Today
10 PM
61°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
59°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
58°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
57°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
55°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
54°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
52°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
51°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
50°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
7 AM
53°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
8 AM
58°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Saturday

77 °F

Not as warm with increasing cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the area late this afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Saturday Night

50 °F

A couple of showers early this evening; partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Sunday

81 °F

Sunshine and patchy clouds; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

49 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Monday

70 °F

Not as warm with times of sun and clouds; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Thunderstorms

Monday Night

46 °F

Cloudy with a couple of thundershowers


Thunderstorms

Tuesday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy and cooler; a couple of afternoon showers and a thunderstorm


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Wednesday

73 °F

Pleasant and warmer with partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

40 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:41 AM
Sunset
8:13 PM

Based on AccuWeather data