Skip to content

The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – July 31st, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

We continue with a quiet and seasonally normal (if not a bit cooler) week. Figure 1 shows the dry air in place over most of Colorado behind the Sunday cold front. Figure 2 for this afternoon shows that cold front down into Mexico and southern Texas today. What a front!

Because of the flow of cool stable air at the surface, we have no chance of convection (thunderstorms) in northern Colorado today (Figure 3).

For tomorrow (Figure 4) some heating and moisture returns and we have a small chance of thunderstorms returning for the afternoon.

Figure 1: the water vapor satellite image from Monday afternoon. Reds/Oranges are dry air, greys/whites are moist air regions.

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Tuesday PM. From NCEP.

Figure 3: the day 2 SPC thunderstorm and severe weather forecast made Monday (valid Tuesday).

Figure 3: the day 3 SPC thunderstorm and severe weather forecast made Monday (valid Wednesday).

Forecast Discussion:

We slowly warm to the lower 90's F (just a touch above normal) for the weekend. There don't seem to be any big precipitation events in the next 10 days. Random afternoon thunderstorms may give some locations like southern and southwestern Colorado (where it is needed the most) some nice rain. This run of the GFS (Figure 5) doesn't give Longmont anything in the next 10 days, but that is not to be completely believed.

Figure 5: The accumulated precipitation for the 10 days following Monday afternoon from the GFS model and weather5280.com

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

58°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.88 Steady
Visibility
10 miles
Dewpoint
39 °F
Humidity
48%
Wind
W 3.5 mph
Gust
6.5 mph
Wind Chill
58 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
2 AM
56°F
Clear
Today
3 AM
54°F
Mostly clear
Today
4 AM
52°F
Mostly clear
Today
5 AM
50°F
Mostly clear
Today
6 AM
48°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 AM
51°F
Mostly sunny
Today
8 AM
57°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 AM
63°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
67°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
70°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
73°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
76°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Sunny

Friday

85 °F

Sunny and very warm


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

48 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Saturday

79 °F

Mostly sunny with a thunderstorm in spots this afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Saturday Night

49 °F

A thunderstorm in spots early this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Sunday

84 °F

Very warm with sunshine and patchy clouds


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

49 °F

Mainly clear


Intermittent clouds

Monday

70 °F

Cooler but pleasant with times of sun and clouds


Thunderstorms

Monday Night

43 °F

Breezy in the evening with thundershowers; a couple of late-night showers


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:42 AM
Sunset
8:12 PM

Based on AccuWeather data